Miami's big-spending ways looks nice now, but plan won't be sustainable
Getty ImagesIf Albert Pujols joins Miami the Marlins will be contenders. But will success last?
MLB EXPERT MAILBAG
By Tony DeMarco
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 7:03 p.m. ET Dec. 6, 2011
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Baseball Expert Tony DeMarco has been covering the big leagues since 1987, and been casting Hall of Fame ballots for the last 12 years. He answers questions weekly here:
Q: The Miami Marlins all of a sudden are spending a bunch of money. Are they doing so wisely, and will they be a playoff contender next season?
? Frank Radcliffe, Miami
A: As a long-time critic of owner Jeffrey Loria's penurious ways, it would be a bit hypocritical of me to rip him for finally spending some money. But he's gone from one extreme to the other, and there's little chance of this being a fiscal success long-term.
Could the Marlins be a contender the next season or two? That's quite likely, although there still are so many roster uncertainties at this point ? even if they have Albert Pujols in their lineup.
But the Marlins never have had a payroll above $60 million, and operated at about $57 million in 2011, so we're talking about doubling that figure overnight if they can lure Pujols away from St. Louis. And if they believe that an attendance boost from a new stadium is going to pay for this for several years to come, they're delusional.
It's pretty well-established that the average attendance boost from new stadiums lasts two-three seasons. And that's in good markets ? but we're talking about a market with a 19-year-track record of being arguably the majors' worst.
The Marlins drew 3,064,847 in their inaugural 1993 season, fell to 1,937,467 the following year, and have drawn more than 2 million only one other time ? when they won it all in 1997. Their home attendance in their 2003 title season was only 1,303,214, and they have averaged under 20,000 in 11 of the last 13 seasons.
Yes, the football stadium they played in was awful. And the new retractable dome will take care of the constant-threat-of-rain issue. But the idea of adding a Latin influence with Ozzie Guillen and Reyes translating to more appeal? That hasn't worked in 19 years, so why expect it to now?
Look no further than the Twins for a similar experiment gone bad. Due in part to their move to Target Field, their payroll all but doubled from about $65 million in 2009 to about $113 million this season ? when they lost 99 games and fired their general manager.
Now to the individual Marlins signings. No doubt, Heath Bell is a nice upgrade from Juan Carlos Oviedo (the closer formerly known as Leo Nunez). But nobody should be surprised if, out of Petco Park, Bell doesn't match his numbers in three seasons as the Padres closer. His strikeout-to-walk ratio already took a dive last season, and he's 34, so it's not likely to climb. And it's not as if Oviedo/Nunez was terrible; he saved 66 games the last two seasons.
Reyes is a legit star in the prime of his career. But he also picked the right time to stay healthy and win a batting title. Given all the trouble he's had with his legs, it's hard to imagine him being the same player he was in 2011 come the last two years of his six-year, $106-million deal.
This Marlins' spending spree could work short-term, but it will become a financial house of cards when they're back to selling 20,000-25,000 tickets per game.
Q: Mike Matheny as manager of the Cardinals ? good fit or not?
? Tony Matheny (no relation), Montgomery, Ala.
A: Matheny was an intriguing choice, to say the least, and there's just no way of knowing at this point how he'll work out as the man who replaced Tony La Russa.
If you're a Cardinals fan, you just have to trust the judgment of general manager John Mozeliak (an excellent and underrated GM, in my opinion) and the rest of the front office.
Matheny has been in their system as special assistant in player development, and also played for the team. So they know his makeup, work ethic and character, and are convinced he can grow into the position, even though he's never managed at any level. Others outside the organization who know Matheny also speak highly of him.Dave Duncan has stuck around for at least one more year, and that will make things much easier for Matheny when it comes to all pitching decisions.
I would have thought the Cardinals would go with a more-experienced bench coach to help Matheny with in-game management. Instead, they promoted assistant hitting instructor Mike Aldrete, bypassing long-time third-base coach Jose Oquendo, who some thought had a shot at replacing La Russa.
Q: What do you think would be the best move for the Braves if they decide to trade starting pitching to get another bat in their lineup?
? Stephen Shoemaker, Tulsa
A: The Braves already dealt Derek Lowe to the Indians for a prospect, so they need to be careful about stripping too much from their rotation in search of another hitter.
Remember, Tim Hudson will be coming off back surgery, and Tommy Hanson has battled shoulder problems. So even with a promising and talented group of young starters ? Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ? you want to have them break in at the back of the rotation behind three quality, experienced starters.
There is plenty of interest in Jair Jurrjens ? and rightfully so ? as he is an excellent No. 2-type and only 25. One drawback is an ongoing right knee issue that could persist or worsen. But he was healthy enough to be penciled into the playoff rotation if the Braves had been able to advance that far, so his health for 2012 seems good.
The Reds are one team with young hitting to offer. But what would help the Braves as much as anybody they can acquire in the trade market is Jason Heyward looking like his 2010 self again ? and not his 2011 version.
The Braves also appear willing to trade versatile Martin Prado if they can get a power-hitting corner outfielder in return. That opens the possibility of a match with the Rockies for Seth Smith.
The Braves have other needs, as well. They're looking for a veteran stop-gag shortstop as insurance for rookie Tyler Pastornicky.
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More newsGetty ImagesMarlins building a house of cards
Mailbag: The Marlins' spending spree on Heath Bell, Jose Reyes and possibly Albert Pujols will make the team a contender in the short term, but a history of tepid fan support in the region will not sustain a large payroll over the long haul.
Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45572159/ns/sports-baseball/
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